Shot in the arm: US Democrats at last see reason for cheer

They haven't had much to celebrate lately, but Democrats are hailing a trio of off-cycle US elections -- plus the beginnings of a fightback in Congress -- as the first glimpse of blue skies over a sea of troubles.

Since being booted from control of Washington's institutions of power in January, the party has been despondent over its inability to counter President Donald Trump's agenda of deep cuts and trade protectionism.

There have been successes to slow the Trump juggernaut in court, but the lack of a coherent plan in Congress has frustrated anti-Trump Americans who have been clamoring for leaders able to show some fight.

So there was jubilation Tuesday when a Democratic-backed candidate won the controlling seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, the top judicial body in one of the most closely-fought swing states.

Republicans hung on to two House seats in Florida on the same night, but with leads greatly reduced from Trump's 2024 victory margins -- worrying lawmakers in much more vulnerable seats ahead of next year's midterms.

"Last night's results were the shot in the arm Democrats needed," said political analyst Andrew Koneschusky, a former senior Democratic staffer in the US Senate.

"If you're a Republican in a competitive district, you're quaking in your boots today."

Some analysts, however, have been pointing out that one swallow -- or even three elections -- does not a spring make. It is not unusual, they say, for a president to face a backlash in the year after his election.

- Reaping the whirlwind -

But the Democrats were cock-a-hoop, arguing in a post-election memo that Republicans were reaping the whirlwind over the radical cuts being pushed by Trump and his billionaire advisor, Elon Musk.

AFP

US Senator Cory Booker shattered a record for the longest speech in Senate history with a fiery protest against President Donald Trump, beginning late March 31, 2025

The Tesla CEO inserted himself front and center in the Wisconsin race, spending a reported $25 million -- not to mention enormous political capital -- to promote the conservative candidate.

But a groundswell of anger over the actions of his Department of Government Efficiency has seen his popularity plummeting -- and Republicans being shouted down by furious constituents at town halls.

"Wisconsin was a thumping, though more of a referendum on Elon Musk. He put himself at the center of the race and Wisconsin voters responded with a resounding 'no thanks,'" said Koneschusky.

"Musk's actions, money and theatrics were deeply unpopular. His fortunes appear to be changing rapidly, from bankroller and kingmaker to political liability."

Koneschusky's analysis came just as Politico was breaking a story that Trump had told his inner circle Musk would be "stepping back in the coming weeks" from his government role.

- Lessons learned? -

As the ballots were being counted, Democratic US Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey was making waves of his own.

The popular career politician -- a cousin of drag queen and entertainer RuPaul -- broke the record for the longest-ever Senate speech, holding the floor for more than 25 hours.

He was praised not just for his stamina, but for demonstrating -- perhaps for the first time since Trump's return -- that the minority party can still find ways to set the agenda and command attention.

Booker's party piece will not derail Trump's plans, but there is little doubt that the 55-year-old broke through to the mainstream, with a message that earned him more than 200 million likes on his TikTok live stream.

Crucial elections coming up this year in Virginia, Pennsylvania and New Jersey will demonstrate whether Democrats have learned lessons that can nurture these green shoots of recovery.

For political historian David Greenberg, a professor at New Jersey's Rutgers University, the Wisconsin result was a reminder that Republicans fare worse when Trump himself isn't on the ballot.

"Democrats remain relatively unpopular and, more important, powerless in Washington. But the Wisconsin victory shows that they still can mobilize turnout when the stakes are high," he told AFP.

But he and other analysts cautioned against breaking out the bubbly too soon -- or giving undue weight to off-cycle races.

"Midterm election results always mirror presidential approval ratings, not special election results," said Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the conservative Ethics and Public Policy Center think tank.

"With Trump still around 48 percent job approval in polling averages, the GOP would not experience a blue wave sweeping it out of office if the midterms were held today," he added, referring to the Republican Party.