GOP's midterm hopes sinking as 'deeper problem' takes root: analysis

The biggest obstacle for Republicans heading into the midterm elections isn’t inflation or the war in Iran, according to a new analysis.

“The deeper problem for the party is that those issues represent broken campaign promises by President Donald Trump and, at least by association, the Republican majorities in Congress,” NBC News’ Jonathan Allen wrote Thursday.

Trump campaigned in 2024 on promises to end inflation and keep the United States out of wars. Nearly two years later, prices continue rising, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine roils on, the Israel-Hamas conflict remains unresolved, and the United States is six months into an Iran war that has driven costs even higher, Allen told readers.

“A suboptimal economy and an unpopular foreign war would be a drag on any president,” the veteran political reporter wrote. “But they are doubly devastating for Trump because he made curbing inflation and keeping the country out of war key components of his brand.”

Allen said that he drew his conclusions during a recent road trip from central New Jersey to Omaha, Nebraska, where he interviewed voters in competitive congressional districts.

“The broken promises came up repeatedly — of course from Democrats who didn’t believe them in the first place, but also from Republicans who have been disappointed or disillusioned by them,” he wrote.

That creates two serious dangers for Republican candidates, according to Allen.

“First, the party’s base is deflated, which means Republican candidates only have a couple of months to light a serious fire under their own voters and persuade independents to swing back toward them,” he said. “Second, and perhaps more troubling for Republicans, it’s hard for Trump to act as a validator for candidates in crucial battlegrounds if voters don’t trust him.”

Democrats will eagerly make the election about Trump, Allen concluded. And, he added, unless the president “executes a major turnaround on the two biggest issues of the moment, Republicans may want to pretend that the midterms aren’t about him.”