Ted Cruz could suffer bruising 'black eye' heading into 2028 with big bet on GOP race

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) has thrown himself behind Attorney General Ken Paxton's struggling Senate campaign – a big bet that could backfire on his own presidential ambitions.

Politico reported that Cruz has become a "part-time adviser, part-time bundler" for Paxton, who trails Democrat James Talarico in most polls in the race to replace retiring Sen. John Cornyn, and the 55-year-old Cruz's help could cement him as Texas' GOP kingmaker and boost his national profile ahead of a potential 2028 White House run.

"But if Paxton fails, it could be a black eye for Cruz," Politico reported.

Cruz stayed neutral during Paxton's bruising primary against Cornyn but jumped in after Paxton won the runoff in May. Within a week, Cruz emceed a Washington fundraiser for the nominee, then joined him on a one-day donor swing through Dallas, Houston and Midland that Cruz said brought in $3 million.

"It is absolutely critical that Texas stay red, that Republicans keep a majority in the U.S. Senate and the House, and that we elect Ken Paxton instead of James Talarico," Cruz told the publication. "And so I am all in."

He has since pitched himself as a bridge between Cornyn's establishment donors and Paxton's MAGA base, telling Politico he's had "hundreds of conversations" with donors.

"The case I've been making to donors who previously supported John Cornyn is, at this point, it's a binary choice, and I think the choice is very clear," Cruz said.

Cruz's super PAC, Truth and Courage, reserved more than $2 million in anti-Talarico ads, though that spending has been dwarfed by bigger buys from the Senate Leadership Fund and other GOP groups. Cruz has also hosted fundraisers for Paxton, including one in a Dallas high-rise so packed that Paxton staffers were relegated to the balcony.

But Democrats are increasingly optimistic that this is the year they finally flip a Texas Senate seat, and a Paxton loss could give Cruz's would-be 2028 rivals an opening to lay the blame at his feet, Politico reported.

One longtime Texas Republican strategist not affiliated with either man argued Cruz has insulated himself.

"This is smart on Ted's part," the strategist said. "It cements him with Paxton supporters as being the guy who stood up for him, and it allows him to expand his reach and have a greater claim on having a unified Texas behind him if he makes a run in 2028."

If Paxton loses, the strategist added, "he put his best foot forward, and it's going to be Paxton's fault that he lost, not Ted Cruz's."

Paxton's campaign declined to comment.