Donald Trump and his allies have characterized the 2024 election as an overwhelming victory—and a mandate for shock politics, mass deportations, and the transformation of the country’s foreign and domestic policy. There’s just one problem: They didn’t actually win by much.
CNN’s Harry Enten reports that Trump is now under 50 percent for the popular vote, and his margin is the forty-fourth worst out of 51 presidential elections since 1824. Four Democrats won Senate seats in states that Trump won (Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada), compared to zero in the 2016 and 2020 elections. And while Republicans held on to their House majority, if results hold, their 221–214 margin will be the smallest majority in the 50-state era.
Trump's mandate? It's very shallow. Trump's now under 50% in the popular vote. His margin ranks 44 of 51 since 1824.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) November 18, 2024
Weak coattails: 4 Dems won for Senate in states Trump won. (It was 0 in 2016 & 2020.)
The GOP is on track for smallest House majority since there were 50 states. pic.twitter.com/FaE80nk4T6
Trump’s appointments are not going to help with the House’s Republican majority, with many of Trump’s choices being elected GOP members. These include Representatives Elise Stefanik as his U.N. ambassador, Mike Waltz as his national security adviser, and Matt Gaetz (who has already resigned) as his attorney general, among others.
Republicans will point out that Trump in 2024 became the first GOP presidential candidate to win the popular vote since 2004 and the second since 1988, but he will arrive in office with a narrow majority in the Senate as well—just a three-seat majority if Democratic Senator Bob Casey loses his seat, which he looks likely to.
Trump will have a hard time passing his legislative agenda in either house of Congress, although some on his team have signaled alternative means of getting what he wants in the form of recess appointments. Trump’s dangerous plan for mass deportations wouldn’t even need congressional approval: He wants to involve the U.S. military by declaring a national emergency. And if Congress wants to stop him on this or any other action, it would take an overwhelming majority, which, no matter how weak his mandate, isn’t likely to happen.