Show HN: Retirementodds.com – a versatile free retirement Monte Carlo calculator

I built a retirement calculator because I couldn't find one for free that did everything I wanted. This originated as a spreadsheet that helped me with my FIRE journey, and now its my retirement passion project.

RetirementOdds.com has a simple mode for getting started, but a much more capable advanced mode. In advanced mode, you can have an unlimited number of assets and cash flows. It handles specialty cash flows like investment real estate, health care, social security, and loans. Every cash flow can have custom start and end dates and rates of return or inflation. Federal and state tax expenses are estimated for you, including handling of long term capital gains.

The computation is a Monte Carlo "chance of success" based on a normalized distribution of returns with an average and standard deviation that you specify. Plus eight different useful charts in the results pane. You can also do a "What If" calculation which allows you to choose one parameter to vary while it runs the calculation multiple times to see how it affects the results.

Tech stack: Front end is "vanilla" Javascript with help from Plotly.js. Back-end (calculations) are Java on AWS Lambda.

Future features: - Drawdown re-ordering - RMD handling - Charts improvements - Sequence of returns and recession modeling

Feedback is much appreciated!


Comments URL: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42426612

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